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Light at the end of the tunnel for rail transport? – Optimistic results in the first half of the year

In June 2024, the railways carried nearly 19 million tonnes of freight, an increase of 4.8 per cent compared to June last year. This is equivalent to an additional 0.9 million tonnes of freight transported.

Transport work performed by the railways in June exceeded 5.1 billion tonne-kilometres, an increase of more than 4% year-on-year, or 0.2 billion tonne-kilometres more. The average distance carried per tonne of freight was over 270 kilometres, a slight decrease of less than 2 kilometres compared to June 2023.

Increases seen on a monthly basis

Compared to May, June was better in terms of the weight of freight carried, which increased by 1.5%. Goods train work also increased by around 0.6%. However, the work in service decreased slightly by 0.1 million train-kilometres, and the average distance carried per tonne of freight also decreased by more than 2 kilometres.

Rail services in the first half of 2024

In the first half of 2024, goods trains transported more than 110 million tonnes of goods. Freight work exceeded 29.3 billion tonne-kilometres and operational work reached almost 40.7 million train-kilometres. Compared to the same period in 2023, this is a decrease of 4.6 million tonnes of freight transported, a decrease of 4%.

Positive outlook for the near future

The last two years have been challenging for rail freight, as evidenced by the results for the first half of 2024. June this year saw a significant increase in rail freight. Despite some challenges, the rail sector is showing signs of stabilisation and growth. Rail freight data has been published by the Rail Transport Authority.

Maritime transport is becoming more expensive and less efficient

Last week, German unions went on strike at the terminals in Hamburg, protests were taken up by port workers in Wilhelmshaven and Bremerhaven. Despite the fact that several days have passed since the protests, their effects are still being felt now. The strike ended after 48 hours, and it will take about a week to decongest the resulting congestion. Strikes in the logistics industry are a major setback, the delivery process to the customer is lengthening and the costs for the extra storage time continue to rise.

Rising costs and waiting times

The average container dwell time at the port is also increasing, with a 9% increase during the strike period, while the average dwell time at other European ports has remained constant. If there are strikes next month as well, delays will accumulate, and be even greater. Meanwhile, the situation in maritime transport is difficult enough without protests. Container transport prices are rising, already reaching $9,000, and transit times are extending to over 50 days.

Strikes at other ports?

The load on medium-sized terminals, hitherto not as heavily used, is also increasing, which puts these terminals and their employees in a new, more difficult situation. – There, too, there are already calls for potential strikes due to huge overloads in relation to previous loads. The terminals in question are those such as Tangier or Le Havre, which carriers use for transhipment to shorten the loop on which ships run.

New tariff of penalties in transport is coming

Road transport is one of the most regulated areas of the labour market. Even a minimal exceeding of the permitted working time is a serious infringement, and there are indications that the regulations are to be even stricter. Exceeding working hours is one of the most serious offences in road transport, which not infrequently leads to truck accidents with serious consequences. As a result of these worrying reports, EU legislators drawing up a table of infringements in road transport have paid particular attention to offences relating to drivers’ driving and rest times. What else do the planned changes, which will come into force early next year, concern?

Additional points for tachograph manipulation

Manipulation of the tachograph is one of the offences with serious consequences. Infringements such as using an unapproved tachograph or having devices in the vehicle that interfere with the tachograph are among the most serious. If they are committed, they may result in a review procedure being initiated regarding the haulier’s modus operandi.

New categorisation of transport companies

Every road haulier is subject to a transport company rating. For this, the inspection services use a complex formula to determine the overall risk level of the company, if only on the basis of how often and for how many significant infringements the haulier has been penalised over the last two years. The system classifies carriers into four risk categories. Each category is marked with a colour.

Infringements in TSL and their classification

The revision of the legislation means that it is compulsory to update the tariffs in each of the member states of the European Union. Based on the classification of offences, the member states lay down rules on the level of penalties and how they should be imposed. The consequences of breaking the law must be effective and proportionate to the seriousness of the offence. According to the legislation, each offence detected by the services is classified into one of the following four categories:

  • NN – most serious breaches – 90 points,
  • BPN – very serious violations – 30 points,
  • PN – serious breaches – 10 points,
  • NMW – minor infringements – 1 point

The carrier receives points for even the smallest non-compliance with the applicable regulations. On the basis of these, he is qualified for the relevant threshold, which may entail an inspection of the company if the points are very high. The most serious infringements may result in proceedings to assess the good reputation of the transport company. This, in turn, may involve the loss of the licence, which in effect makes it impossible to carry out transport activities.

CPK with a new look

At yesterday’s Prime Minister’s Conference, the continuation of the Central Transport Port project was announced, albeit in a modified form:

  • the intention to establish an airport in Baranowo, which is to be one of the most modern in Europe, was confirmed,
  • The start-up date of the airport has been set for 2032,

  • expansion of the motorway linking Warsaw and Łódź has been announced,

  • The CPK project will be extended to the whole of Poland through a network of rail connections linking the major cities (and not – as originally envisaged – intersecting in Baranowo),

  • According to government representatives, the rail travel time between Poland’s largest cities should be no longer than 100 minutes,

  • Modlin airport will be expanded and modernised for low-cost airlines and will also gain a rail link to Warsaw,

  • Chopin Airport’s capacity has been described as ‘running out’,
    it is expected to undergo modernisation and change its business profile in the future,

  • The government announced measures to activate other regional airports – in addition to Modlin – to play an important role in the new transport ecosystem.

Investment costs are expected to amount to PLN 131 billion by 2032, of which the airport part alone will consume PLN 42.7 billion.

Countervailing duties on electric vehicles from China

The European Commission has announced countervailing duties on electric vehicles produced in China. Currently, electric vehicles produced in China are up to 30% cheaper than similar European-made models.

Competitiveness of Chinese electric vehicles

The European Commission’s investigation has tentatively shown that the electric vehicle industry in China is using unfair underpricing to deter competition. This poses a risk of economic harm to EU electric car manufacturers. Following these worrying signals, the European Commission contacted the Chinese government to find a WTO-compatible way to resolve the situation. The investigation also examined the potential consequences and impact of the proposed duties on importers and users of green vehicles in the EU.

How high will the tariffs be?

The Commission has revealed the level of provisional countervailing duties it expects to impose on imports of electric vehicles from China if talks with the Chinese authorities do not lead to a successful resolution.

Provisional countervailing duties would only be levied if definitive duties are imposed. The existing duty on Chinese electric cars was 10%.
The individual duties the Commission wants to impose on the three sampled Chinese producers would be as follows: SAIC: 38.1%; Geely:20% BYD: 17,4%. Other BEV producers in China that cooperated with the investigation but were not included in the sample would be subject to a weighted average duty of 21%. Manufacturers that did not co-operate in the investigation would be subject to a duty of: 38,1%.

If talks with the Chinese government are unsuccessful, tariffs will be introduced as early as 4 July this year.